Olympic analysts Nielsen's Gracenote have predicted an upset in women's judo at the Paris Games, forecasting Japanese reigning world and Olympic champion Uta Abe to fall in the 52-kilogram final.
The company released its latest forecast on Wednesday to mark 100 days until the 2024 Olympics Opening Ceremony, slotting Japan into sixth place on the medal table.
Recently named the world's top female judoka for the second year in a row, Abe has been the dominant force in her weight division since bursting onto the scene with a win at the 2017 Dusseldorf Grand Prix, a victory that made the then 16-year-old the youngest winner in the competition's history.
But Gracenote believes that in Paris home mat advantage will help Amandine Buchard dethrone four-time world champion Abe in the final.
"Abe is currently in the silver medal position due to her French rival being boosted with the home advantage factor we give to French competitors who are already ranked in the top three," said Gracenote's head of analysis Simon Gleave.
Gracenote predicts judoka Natsumi Tsunoda, Hifumi Abe -- Uta's brother -- and Japan in the team event will win gold medals, the three in total down from nine it won as host in 2021, as the competition is "more open this year than in Tokyo," Gleave said.
Japan had its best-ever medal table ranking at the Tokyo Games, finishing third with 27 gold medals behind only the United States and China. Three years later, Gracenote sees Japan winning 13 gold, 16 silver and 20 bronze.
Judo aside, wrestling and artistic gymnastics are the sports in which Japan will see the most success, the company believes, with gymnast Daiki Hashimoto tipped to take bragging rights with three gold medals.
Gracenote has Hashimoto as the favorite to defend his individual all-around and horizontal bar titles and to go one better than the silver Japan won in the men's team event in 2021.
Among Japan's wrestlers, Gracenote says Yui Susaki is likely to defend her 50-kg Olympic title while debutants Akari Fujinami and Tsugumi Sakurai are favorites to win the 53-kg and 57-kg titles, respectively.
Misaki Emura will win Japan's first individual fencing gold at an Olympic Games in the women's saber event, the company's analysts believe, while the nation will also strike gold in the men's team foil.
Two female reigning world champions, javelin thrower Haruka Kitaguchi and park skateboarder Kokona Hiraki, are the other two Japanese athletes listed as likely gold medalists.
In the newly added dance sport of breaking, Japan is in the running for a number of medals, with Ami Yuasa and Ayumi Fukushima predicted to reach the women's podium, as is Shigeyuki Nakarai in the men's.
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