By David Boling,
For former President Donald Trump, trade policy is a top priority. At a press conference during his first term, he said that his concern with trade was probably the main reason that he ran for president.
For most presidents, issues such as national defense, taxes, or health care are much more important than trade. The reason that trade is so central to Trump is because it is not only a policy issue to him but also a personal one, sitting at the core of his identity.
Trump's views on trade became fixed in his mind in the 1970s and 1980s and have not changed since. At that time, he was a fierce critic of Japan's trade practices.
Research shows that most people experience a type of musical paralysis after they turn 30, and their taste doesn't change anymore. The same can be said for Trump's views on trade -- they are an immutable part of his personality now.
One of Trump's core beliefs is that other countries unfairly trade with the United States. For Trump, U.S. trade deficits with other countries -- such as China, Germany, or Japan -- are evidence that the United States is being exploited. The U.S. trade deficit in goods with Japan in 2023 was about $71.5 billion.
To fix this problem, Trump's negotiating strategy is to use the power of the open U.S. market against trading partners. Because countries like Japan depend on exporting products to the United States, Trump leverages that dependency to his advantage. That's why he threatens to limit access to the U.S. market by raising tariffs.
Trump's favorite trade tool is tariffs. Tariffs are in Trump's DNA, and they reflect his personality: blunt, pushy, and headline-grabbing.
When Trump says that he will impose tariffs against trading partners, they should not ignore it. Trump gains an enormous negotiating advantage when he threatens to impose tariffs. Doing so immediately puts him in an offensive rather than defensive position.
Trump and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had a very good relationship. But even Abe could not stop Trump from slapping tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminum imports. Trump also threatened tariffs against Japanese automobile imports, and Abe could not disregard such a risk to a key Japanese industry.
So, Abe agreed to negotiate a new U.S.-Japan trade deal. In exchange for Trump not imposing tariffs on Japanese auto imports, Abe granted the United States better access to the Japanese agriculture market. This episode is a classic example of Trump's trade negotiating strategy at work; similar ones would likely occur in a second term.
If Trump is elected as president again in November, Japan will be on Trump's trade target list for tariffs. Other countries, like China, will be higher priorities, but Japan will be on the list too.
Another one of Trump's core beliefs is that foreign countries are not spending enough on defense and instead are taking advantage of the U.S.'s willingness to protect them. A second Trump administration would likely increase pressure on Japan to spend more money on defense. Trump may also threaten tariffs to achieve this aim.
But Tokyo has some negotiating leverage it can use against Trump. First, Japan is the United States' top foreign investor -- Trump wants Japan to keep investing in the United States. Second, the United States needs Japan as an ally to effectively counter China; advisers to Trump will remind him of Japan's importance.
Nevertheless, because trade policy is one of Trump's highest priorities and tariffs are in his genetic makeup, it will be hard for Japan to avoid higher tariffs if Trump returns to office.
(David Boling works at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, and previously served as a trade negotiator in the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations.)
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