By Bruce Stokes,
The impact of American presidential debates has often been what they have revealed about a candidate's character and impressionistic fitness for office rather than their stance on particular issues. And going into the June 27 debate only one-in-seven Americans were confident President Joe Biden is physically up to the job, while just one-in-four believed Donald Trump is ethically fit for the office.
The debate turned out to be one between an old man and a con man. Biden's raspy voice, slack-jawed face and occasional confusion in answering questions only reinforced viewers' concerns about his age. Trump's repeated outright lies and refusal to deal with questions about his authoritarianism, climate change and threat to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants only reminded voters why they distrusted him.
One question to be answered in the months ahead is the impact of Trump's and Republican voters' populism. Six-in-ten Republicans believe the U.S. economic system unfairly favors powerful interests. The Biden campaign will attempt to woo these voters by painting Trump as carrying water for corporations and the rich. But Trump supporters see this billionaire as their change agent. So many of them will vote for him in the belief that he will take on the special interests that deny them their due.
International issues played a surprisingly large role in the debate, despite polls showing that by six-to-one voters say they want the next President to focus on problems close to home. This is particularly true among Republicans, who want the United States to be less involved in solving problems overseas.
Nevertheless, China did come up and both candidates were harshly critical, reflecting the fact that eight-in-ten Americans have an unfavorable view of that country, sentiment that is even worse than after the Tiananmen Square massacre. And twice as many Republicans as Democrats see China as an enemy, which suggests a get-tough policy by Trump would have the backing of his base. Trump denied that his threatened 60 percent tariff on Chinese products would raise prices in the U.S., despite studies by economists that it would do that very thing.
With more than four months to go before the election anything can happen to sway voter opinion. And debate performances may fade from collective memory.
Unfortunately for Biden, he is more vulnerable than Trump to untoward future events. The economy could slow, inflation could rebound. Illegal immigration might spike. The Gaza war could continue and spread to Lebanon, drawing Iran into the conflict, driving up oil prices. The Russians could achieve significant battlefield advances, suggesting the U.S. has bet on the losing horse in this conflict. China or North Korea could become more aggressive.
By comparison, the indifference Trump voters have shown toward his felony convictions, his authoritarian proclivity, his sexual peccadillos and his business failures suggest there is little that can happen between now and election day that will sway his hard-core supporters.
In the end, average Americans just want daddy to solve the nation's problems. And Biden, as President, is daddy. If he appears ineffectual, and his debate performance did not reassure them, many voters may feel it's time for a change and they have little to lose by returning Trump to office.
Biden's failure to go after Trump effectively for his 34 felony convictions, the President's general defensiveness in the face of Trump's attacks, his often confusing answers, and the moderators' failure to fact-check Trump's lies led many observers, including some Democratic Party stalwarts, to conclude that Biden lost the debate, panicking some into suggesting, at least privately, that he should decide to not seek reelection.
It is too early to know the full impact of the debate. Only public opinion polls in the days ahead will determine that, although some early focus groups suggest the debate did not change many minds. But in the hours immediately after the debate, it is safe to say that it was a much better night for Donald Trump than for Joe Biden.
(Bruce Stokes is a senior visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.)
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