By Takuya Karube,
World leaders are well aware of the importance of China's diplomatic trajectory to the fate of Ukraine as it struggles to repel a Russian invasion now in its third year.
But a high-level conference in Switzerland spearheaded by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, despite attracting leaders and senior officials from about 100 countries, laid bare a harsh reality: China has no interest in shifting away from Russia.
Beyond just declining to attend the first conference of its sort, a two-day gathering through Sunday organized by the neutral Swiss government, China has reaffirmed through recent developments that its partnership with Russia -- once proclaimed as having "no limits" -- involves military and economic ties growing deeper than ever before.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's choice of China for his first foreign trip in mid-May after being inaugurated for a fifth term in office underlined that Beijing has become an essential collaborator for Moscow.
For Putin, China, which has boosted its purchasing of Russian oil and gas, is now the most important lifeline for his country's economy, and a historic increase in two-way trade suggests that both sides need each other to cushion the impact of a raft of sanctions introduced against them by the United States and its allies.
China, trying to portray itself as a neutral actor in the war, has given different interpretations of the Swiss summit and justified its absence by echoing Russia's official line that any peace process without the Kremlin's participation is meaningless.
According to Yun Sun, a senior fellow and director of the China program at the Stimson Center think tank, Beijing believes the conference is "not about peace," but merely the "optics of an international coalition against Russia."
Chinese President Xi Jinping must have considered the likelihood of the war continuing as part of his political calculation.
Xi's pursuit of closer ties with Putin amid Russia's renewed offensive in northeastern Ukraine signals his recognition that there will be no progress anytime soon toward ending the conflict, and that it could extend well beyond the increasingly unpredictable U.S. presidential election in November.
While Xi has little to lose even if the war drags on, as many analysts of Sino-Russian relations have pointed out, China's alignment with Russia seems motivated in large part by his rivalry with the collective West.
Regardless of the situation on the battleground, therefore, Western officials and foreign affairs experts believe that China's multifaceted support for Russia will continue as long as their common opposition to U.S. hegemony simmers.
"China supports Russia because they face the same strategic pressure from the U.S. and the West," Sun said, adding that Beijing's "bottom line" is that Russia not lose the war. "In this sense, the Chinese are more likely to give more support to Russia if it stands to lose."
By the same token, Western capitals continue to see the Ukrainian crisis through the prism of their fight against an axis of authoritarian states.
After signing a 10-year security agreement with Zelenskyy on the sidelines of this year's Group of Seven summit in southern Italy on Thursday, U.S. President Joe Biden said Russia's invasion of Ukraine, launched in 2022, has been a "test for the world."
"Would we stand with Ukraine?" Biden said. "Would we stand for sovereignty, freedom, and against tyranny?"
"The United States, the G7 and countries around the world have consistently answered that question by saying 'Yes, we will.' We will say it again...we're going to stand with Ukraine."
Biden and other leaders of the G7, including France, Germany and Japan, expressed "deep concern" about China's role in the conflict, urging Beijing to stop the transfer of dual-use materials, such as microelectronics and nitrocellulose, to Russia, as such goods are believed to be revitalizing its military-industrial base.
"China's actions to support the Russian war machine are now not just threatening Ukraine's existence, but European security and transatlantic security," a senior Biden administration official told reporters on the eve of the Swiss conference.
Although Zelenskyy had long refrained from criticizing China directly, he appears to be losing patience lately with Beijing's warming ties with Moscow.
Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, predicts Xi will not abandon Putin.
"Instead, China will continue to help Moscow and sabotage Western-led peace proposals," he said. "Ultimately, it hopes to bring Russia and Ukraine to the table itself to broker a lasting agreement," he added, while noting that such an attempt is unlikely to succeed due to Zelenskyy's lack of trust in Beijing.
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