Japan's primary budget balance will swing to a surplus in fiscal 2025, a revised government estimate showed Monday, indicating that its current fiscal rehabilitation goal will be met after repeated delays.

If the heavily indebted nation records a surplus as expected, it will be the first since fiscal 1991. The dire straits of the country's state coffers will not change, however, as the size of its debt will still be twice as large as the economy in the most conservative scenario.

In its previous report in January, the government expected the goal to be met in fiscal 2026 at the earliest.

The latest revision reflects stronger growth of tax revenue as the economy expands, while inflation remains at a higher level than estimated.

But it does not take into account the effect of new inflation-relief measures that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said the government will compile this fall, as the exact size of spending on the measures remains unclear, according to officials.

Japan expects to have a primary budget surplus of 800 billion yen ($5 billion) in fiscal 2025 starting next April, on the assumption that the economy will grow 1.2 percent in inflation-adjusted real terms. The country will remain in the black thereafter, the Cabinet Office said in the projections.

The government in 2002 set the goal of achieving a primary budget surplus, meaning spending excluding debt-servicing costs is financed by tax revenue and without issuing new debt. The target year has been repeatedly revised, most recently from fiscal 2020 to fiscal 2025.

When debt-related costs are included, the budget balance is unlikely to swing to a surplus throughout the projected period through fiscal 2033, underscoring the challenge faced by Japan as debt-servicing costs are expected to rise in the coming years in line with the Bank of Japan's departure from monetary easing.

The revised figures were presented at a meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, a government panel that includes private-sector members who advise the prime minister when Japan draws up key macroeconomic policies and state budgets.

The private-sector members said the government must streamline spending to achieve economic growth and fiscal rehabilitation, urging it to pay attention "more than ever" to the impact of rising interest rates on state debt.

The BOJ plans to reduce its buying of Japanese government bonds after years of aggressive purchases kept borrowing costs depressed at extremely low levels and allowed the government to ramp up spending, even in times of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. The central bank now owns around half of outstanding state debt.

The government presented multiple growth scenarios for the projected period. In the baseline case, the economy is projected to expand around 0.5 percent, while the corresponding figure in the more optimistic scenario is around 1.5 percent.

In the high-growth scenario, Japan will see its gross domestic product increase by around 1.8 percent annually in real terms.