By Hiroki Sugita,
Taiwan is now facing many challenges as always, but the source of the growing tension is not just military intimidation from China but something more insidious.
A confrontation between the Lai Ching-te administration, which rejects unification with China, and the coalition of the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party, which has a conciliatory line toward China and holds the legislature, is deepening.
Chaos in the working of the island's democracy is emerging, exactly as authoritarian regimes like to claim is a major drawback of democracies. A Chinese strategy has begun to develop that does not involve military invasion or economic blockade that would provoke a fierce international outcry but instead targets Taiwan's own democratic procedures to break its independence.
At the Asia Journalism Forum 2024 held in Taipei at the end of June, I heard Taiwanese participants express concern about China's increasing influence over Taiwanese politics through pro-China forces.
One major Taiwanese media executive in an unofficial conversation analyzed the situation as "the beginning of a major move that will mark a turning point for Taiwan."
Taiwan's parliament in May passed a law requiring pro-independence President Lai to report to parliament and punishing public officials for making false statements. These measures were aimed at weakening the president's authority and blocking his actions.
The prevailing view among well-informed Taiwanese journalists and scholars was that China was using the Kuomintang to tighten its grip on Taiwan.
China has also announced judicial procedures to punish Taiwanese pro-independence activists. The maximum penalty is death. This is reminiscent of the method used by China to divide Hong Kong's political forces and then, in 2020, to create the Hong Kong National Security Law, which eliminated democratic forces and placed Hong Kong under the direct control of the Communist Party.
Lai I-chung, an expert on Taiwan's foreign policy, predicts that President Lai may not get the defense budget needed to defend Taiwan because he has lost control of the legislature. This would inevitably weaken Taiwan against an increasingly militarily powerful China.
With the inauguration of President Lai on May 20, China is stepping up its efforts to shake up Taiwan by conducting military exercises and removing preferential treatment for imports of products from Taiwan.
It has been observed that China has ostensibly reacted to Lai with restraint, not loudly condemning his inauguration, partly due to reassuring U.S. statements that it would not support the independence of Taiwan. But the steady movement toward unification that is underway behind the scenes is a war of nerves.
In Taiwan, the relationship with the United States is a contentious issue that divides public opinion. China and pro-China groups encourage distrust of the United States and spread the argument that Taiwanese people should value China over the United States.
According to Huang Jaw-nian, associate professor at National Chengchi University in Taiwan, in a poll conducted just before the presidential election this past January, 62 percent of respondents said the United States could not be trusted. The figure for Kuomintang supporters was 85 percent, and it was also as high as 69 percent among supporters of the Taiwan People's Party.
Among overall respondents, meanwhile, 57.5 percent believe that the United States would send troops if Taiwan were about to be attacked by China, while 42.5 percent do not.
Again, only 30 percent of Kuomintang supporters believe that the United States would send troops, and among supporters of the Taiwan People's Party, the figure is also low at 49 percent.
It can be said that distrust of the United States is spreading after the war in Ukraine, with the United States not sending troops and being unwilling to provide necessary weapons for victory. U.S. President Joe Biden has said that he will defend Taiwan with military force, but he is not fully trusted.
It is striking that only 44 percent of respondents said that the strengthening of relations with the United States will make Taiwan safer.
There were big differences in views on the question according to party preference, with 83 percent of supporters of Lai's Democratic Progressive Party saying it would make Taiwan safer, but only 16 percent of Kuomintang supporters and 34 percent of the Taiwan People's Party agreeing.
There is certain concern that moves to strengthen U.S.-Taiwan relations could instead trigger a war and that Taiwan would be more stable if it deepened relations with China instead.
Every country seeks to divide public opinion between opposing sides. At the forum, journalists from all countries spoke of the prevalence of fake news and disinformation. In such cases, "wedges," or policy issues for division, become important.
In Taiwan's case, this is the relationship with the United States. At first glance, strengthening relations with the United States seems to be a deterrent to China, but the argument goes that it also increases the risk of being drawn into a war.
The foreign policy expert Lai I-chung sees Taiwan not declaring independence and Chinese President Xi Jinping refraining from military aggression against Taiwan for the time being.
On the other hand, regardless of Taiwan's policy, a scenario in which China presses Taiwan to unify with the goal of winning the competition with the United States is envisioned.
Lai believes that Taiwan Strait security is dominated by Chinese concern about its competition with the United States. Taiwan's future will no longer be determined by Taiwan, but by the course of the U.S.-China confrontation.
He strongly advocates that Taiwan move closer to the U.S.-led liberal democratic camp, while the pro-China camp argues that only by strengthening relations with China can Taiwan avoid being drawn into war.
During my visit to Taiwan, one report surfaced that reinforced distrust of the United States. When Xi Jinping met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in April 2023, he said that the United States wanted him to attack Taiwan in order to weaken China, but he would not fall into that trap.
Although the U.S. government immediately denied it, I was asked in various places about the veracity of this report, which illustrates the strength of distrust of the United States.
If Donald Trump, who dislikes the involvement of U.S. forces in overseas conflicts, is reelected as U.S. president, the distrust of the United States in Taiwan is likely to intensify. In this context, we should expect that public opinion may prioritize proximity to China in the hope of peace and prosperity.
If the distrust of the United States is strong, what about the distrust of Japan? Japanese politicians have made such bold statements as "we should recognize the Taiwan emergency is a Japanese one" and "we are prepared to fight," but how are these statements received in Taiwan?
A former senior official of the Taiwanese government said, "We know that Japan has Constitutional limitations in its military activities. Japan cannot help us enough. But we are happy just to see Japan say it supports Taiwan," he said.
In Japan, the public and private sectors are actively considering Taiwan contingency scenarios, but even the evacuation and protection of Japanese nationals in Taiwan and mainland China and the defense of Okinawa and Kyushu would be stymied by legal, political and military obstacles.
Support for Taiwan could be a daunting task for Japan. Knowing such realities in Japan, he says, "I am grateful even if it is lip service or empty promises." This is Taiwanese realism, which seeks to gain the highest benefit from the environment while knowing its limitations.
(Hiroki Sugita is a visiting editorial writer at Kyodo News.)
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