By Tomoyuki Tachikawa,
After Japan's 150-day ordinary Diet session wrapped up with the long-running scandal over slush funds still dogging the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, attention now shifts to the party's presidential race in September which sees Prime Minister Fumio Kishida facing the real possibility of a leadership challenge.
With Kishida clearly diminished due to his inability to unite his party behind reforms to political finance rules, some senior LDP lawmakers have begun to express their willingness to replace him. If that happens, his successor will become the country's prime minister, at least until the general election expected later this year.
The LDP leader, whether it be Kishida or someone else, will be tasked with rebuilding support for the party that has plunged to its lowest levels since the it returned to power in December 2012 after a brief period in opposition.
At a press conference late last week to mark the end of this year's regular parliamentary session, Kishida, 66, pledged fresh inflation relief steps and then said with a smile, "I have a lot of energy. I wouldn't say I'm tired," indicating he has no intention of moving on.
Asked how he evaluates his accomplishments since taking the leadership in October 2021, he said, "I'm still halfway. I believe it's important to make efforts to achieve results."
Under the plan unveiled by Kishida, his government will reinstate steps to curb electricity and gas bills for households between August and October, when the heat of summer sends energy bills skyrocketing.
An LDP lawmaker who requested anonymity to be frank in his comments said, "The announcement is apparently aimed at garnering public popularity by doling out pork-barrel policies that would be implemented during the presidential race period."
The politician, who has actively distanced himself from Kishida, labeled it a "sneaky tactic."
Kishida also promised to map out the second version of his new economic vision in the fall, but its design and scale will "depend on the outcome of the LDP presidential election," said Takuya Hoshino, chief economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
The LDP and Kishida have since the start of this year been grappling with the funds scandal after it emerged some of the party's factions, such as the largest one formerly headed by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, failed to report portions of their income from fundraising parties to accumulate slush funds.
Kishida disbanded his faction to set an example for others, while punishing veteran lawmakers who were close to Abe over the scandal.
In June, he managed to secure the enactment of a revised political funds control law, which the opposition has criticized for leaving many loopholes that enable politicians to continue creating slush funds. The process revealed deep rifts within the LDP as many party members pushed for less wide-ranging reform.
Mieko Nakabayashi, a politics professor at Waseda University, said Kishida stood firm against opposition within his party over the revised law because he "prioritized avoiding criticism" from the public over protecting his internal party standing.
Approval ratings for Kishida's Cabinet, however, have fallen far below 30 percent, a threshold widely recognized as a "danger level" for a government in Japan, making him unwilling to dissolve the House of Representatives for an election any time soon.
In order to turn around the situation, Kishida has to concentrate on "policies on economic growth and diplomacy," an aide to the prime minister said without wishing to reveal their identity, adding the only and best way to prop up his popularity is to "give the impression that Japan has improved under his leadership."
As for diplomacy, Kishida said he is slated to attend a NATO summit in July in Washington and a meeting with leaders from five Central Asian countries in Kazakhstan in August.
Moreover, some lawmakers believe Kishida may reshuffle Cabinet members and the LDP executive in the summer to allow him to project a sense of renewal and bring candidates hoping to succeed him further into the fold. The move, they think, may improve his chances of reelection.
But personnel changes close to the end of a party leader's term are risky, given that Kishida's predecessor, Yoshihide Suga, was compelled to give up running in the LDP presidential race in September 2021 after failing to get his own shakeup done.
In April that year, the LDP lost three by-elections as Suga's leadership was called into question due to his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. His attempt to rebuild his popularity by shuffling LDP executives failed when the party pushed back against his proposed changes.
Such peripheral moves may impact Kishida's standing among the public, but the LDP still would have a hill to climb in a general election.
Kishida may have got a preview of the conservative LDP's election prospects when in April 2024 the party suffered a crushing defeat in lower house by-elections, losing three seats to the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan led by left-leaning lawmaker Kenta Izumi.
Recently, Suga, still a powerbroker in the LDP, loudly urged Kishida to consider stepping down over his handling of scandal that has threatened the party's grip on power, saying the premier should take responsibility as leader.
Suga's remarks suggest that the highest levels of the party no longer back Kishida as prime minister. The comments also come in the wake of similar calls from some junior LDP lawmakers for Kishida to resign in the run-up to the party's presidential election.
A Kyodo News poll showed earlier this month that only 10.4 percent of respondents want Kishida to win the LDP's upcoming presidential race, while former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba was seen as his most suitable replacement with 26.2 percent.
Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi followed with 12.1 percent and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, who could become Japan's first female prime minister, obtained 7.8 percent. Digital Minister Taro Kono, who reportedly has informed a senior LDP figure he plans to run for party president, also polled at 7.8 percent.
Ishiba, who used to be regarded as Abe's biggest rival, and Koizumi, a rising star in Japanese politics and the son of the popular former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, are rumored to be Suga's preferred candidates to run against Kishida.
Asked by reporters how he sees the presidential election playing out, Ishiba said, "It's still June. As the prime minister has busy diplomatic schedules and is working hard at the moment, I won't comment on" the race.
Related coverage:
Former PM Suga says calls for Kishida to quit growing louder in LDP
Only 10% want PM Kishida to stay as support rate sags: Kyodo poll
PM Kishida Cabinet survives no-confidence motion over funds scandal
