By Takuya Karube,
NATO's push in recent years for practical cooperation with its Indo-Pacific partners -- Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea -- was on full display at an annual summit marking the alliance's 75th anniversary. But such efforts could peak and ultimately lose momentum, depending on the results of the U.S. presidential election in November.
The three-day summit through Thursday in Washington was expected to be the most important diplomatic event that U.S. President Joe Biden would host in 2024, with his administration officials preparing for months to place his leadership in rebuilding multilateralism on center stage.
Yet as the 81-year-old leader faces increasing headwinds in his bid for a second term, the prospect of NATO skeptic Donald Trump returning to the White House ended up stealing the focus.
Biden's shaky performance in a television debate late last month with Trump, his predecessor and Republican rival in the election, ignited a fresh round of concerns over the incumbent's age and doubts about whether he can serve four more years in office. As a consequence, his every movement and utterance during the summit came under intense scrutiny.
There are few pundits and foreign officials who expect the efforts of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and other multilateral mechanisms to continue on their current track if Trump regains the presidency.
"If Trump were to suddenly withdraw from NATO or quickly reduce the U.S. military presence in Europe, I would expect European allies to be very preoccupied trying to fill these capability shortfalls," said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow in the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program at the Stimson Center.
"Deepening cooperation with the IP4 would fall way down the list of priorities," she said, using a common shortened term for the four Indo-Pacific partners.
In the run-up to the November election, the U.S. capital, where the transatlantic alliance was formed by 12 initial members in 1949, was considered the perfect setting to highlight some of Biden's international accomplishments since taking office three and a half years ago.
Along with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Biden has asserted since the early days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine that security challenges in Europe and Asia are inextricably linked.
NATO's engagement with the Indo-Pacific partners was elevated when their leaders participated for the first time in the alliance's annual summit in 2022, which took place in Madrid.
It was the year the invasion began and also when NATO for the first time labeled China as an actor posing "systemic challenges" to Euro-Atlantic security.
For the third consecutive year, NATO leaders held a meeting with their counterparts from the Indo-Pacific partners, reaffirming that they share many common concerns and strategic interests.
These range from China's growing military capabilities and its deepening relations with Russia to cyber defense and disinformation.
At a press conference to cap off the summit, Biden stressed his administration has "strengthened the Asian-Pacific area more than anyone else has" and slowed down China's attempts to expand its presence by working more closely with Washington's allies and like-minded partners.
His national security adviser Jake Sullivan also told reporters when NATO's meeting with the four partners was taking place on Thursday, "As we speak right now, we've got Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand sitting in that room, confirming that we will coordinate closely with our closest democratic allies in the Indo-Pacific."
"There is a network, a latticework of allies, globally, standing up for democracy and standing against the kind of aggression we've seen from (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and the support for that aggression from some of these other dictators," he said.
At the meeting, NATO and the four countries agreed to launch joint initiatives in areas including cybersecurity and countering disinformation. Japan also agreed to improve its coordination with NATO to share confidential information, based on their bilateral partnership agreement.
Mirna Galic, a senior policy analyst for China and East Asia at the United States Institute of Peace, said that "the heavy lifting on these relationships" including in terms of promoting their importance and institutionalizing the IP4 countries into NATO structures and forums, has been done effectively.
"This kind of work will continue without the need for any further encouragement by the next U.S. administration," she said. "These relationships are now well on their way."
Grieco of the Washington-based think tank, however, believes the 32 NATO members will differ as to their degree of interest in extending the alliance's reach to Indo-Pacific issues, regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election.
"Many European allies, especially those in the east, want the alliance to prioritize the Russian threat and continental defense, particularly with the war in Ukraine, and worry NATO's Indo-Pacific tilt is a distraction," Grieco said.
As the U.S. role has been vital in managing the Ukraine crisis, she suggested other NATO members, including France and Germany, have been willing to defer to the Biden administration's strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific.
But, she said, they are wary of being drawn into the intensifying U.S.-China rivalry in light of their economic ties with the Asian power.
"At the end of the day, Europeans view Russia as posing a greater military threat closer to home than any security threat from China," she said. "For Europe, China is mainly a political and economic competitor, not a military one."
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