By Tomoyuki Tachikawa,
A major miscalculation by Fumio Kishida, who will resign as Japan's prime minister at the end of his ruling party's presidential term in September, was his failure to find an opportunity to dissolve the House of Representatives.
Shortly after hosting the Group of Seven summit in his home constituency of Hiroshima in May 2023, which included an appearance by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speculation surged that Kishida would call a snap election in the near future.
Kishida tried to boost his political standing to establish a long-running government by leading his conservative Liberal Democratic Party to victory in a general election, but a series of scandals eventually prevented him from taking that gamble.
Since late last year, the LDP has faced intense scrutiny after some of its factions failed to report portions of their income from fundraising parties and created slush funds, driving approval ratings for Kishida's Cabinet down to the 20 percent range.
His unpopularity sparked concerns within the LDP that the ruling camp would experience a significant setback if the next lower house election were to be held under Kishida, who took office in October 2021, prompting some lawmakers to seek his ouster from power.
Kishida became the eighth premier since 1945 to reach 1,000 days in office in June, but he "has many problems as a leader" as he "lacks coordination skills without conceiving a long-term vision," said Koji Nakakita, a professor in politics at Chuo University.
"With the approval ratings for his Cabinet lagging, Kishida found himself in a situation where he faced criticism no matter what action he took. As public support increasingly turned away from him, he was left with no viable solutions," Nakakita said.
At a hastily scheduled press conference on Wednesday morning, Kishida said, "As a first step to impress on the public that the LDP has changed, I have decided not to run in the presidential race," adding he takes responsibility for the political funds scandal.
In his first year in office, Kishida maintained relatively high approval ratings for his Cabinet as he led the ruling coalition to a comfortable majority in the lower house election weeks after he became premier.
Kishida's LDP also won the House of Councillors election in July 2022, held just two days after former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was fatally shot during the official campaign. The assassination, allegedly carried out by a man with resentment against the Unification Church, spurred a sympathy vote for the ruling party.
The triumph initially seemed to secure Kishida a firm position in power for what was dubbed his "golden three years," a period free from national elections unless he chose to dissolve the lower house. However, his political maneuvering has been under scrutiny since Abe's death.
In mid-2022, Kishida's grip on power was shaken by revelations of suspicious links between LDP lawmakers and the controversial religious group, often labeled as a cult, as well as by the resignations of several Cabinet members over scandals and gaffes.
Kishida's popularity also plunged due largely to his hasty decision to hold a state funeral with taxpayers' money for Abe, who some argue jeopardized Japan's democracy and abused his power for personal gain during his eight years as premier from 2012.
But public support for Kishida briefly picked up after his surprise trip to Ukraine in March 2023 for talks with Zelenskyy and progress in resolving a long-standing dispute with South Korea over wartime labor compensation.
Two months after his visit to Ukraine, under invasion by Russia since February 2022, Kishida apparently demonstrated his strength in diplomacy by successfully carrying out the G7 summit in Hiroshima, the world's first city to be struck by an atomic bomb.
Kishida's approval ratings, however, plummeted again as inappropriate photographs taken during a family function at the prime minister's official residence surfaced, along with the government's mishandling of personal data under the "My Number" identification card system.
In June 2023, Kishida was said to have decided against dissolving the lower house during the year's ordinary parliamentary session, but his situation did not improve as the public harshly criticized his government's tax hike proposals.
Nevertheless, Kishida attempted to recover his popularity by reshuffling his Cabinet to freshen up the public perception of his government and by pitching his diplomatic achievements, but the slush funds scandal dealt him a fatal blow.
In April 2024, the LDP lost three seats, including one in Shimane Prefecture, known as a conservative stronghold, to the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, headed by left-leaning lawmaker Kenta Izumi, in by-elections.
As Kishida's political fund reforms have also been unfavorably received by the public, LDP veteran lawmaker Seiichiro Murakami said, "The prime minister cannot be the face of the election. If things continue like this, there is a risk of a change of government."
Another LDP member close to Kishida said heavyweights within the ruling party have effectively blocked him from "playing the trump card of dissolving the lower house" for a snap election.
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