By Takuya Karube,
The chances of Donald Trump finding his way back to the White House for a second term are now higher than at any previous time in the 2024 presidential race, fueling uncertainties about U.S. global leadership and its approach to Asian countries other than China.
The Republican Party's four-day national convention through Thursday in Milwaukee to formalize Trump's nomination proceeded as planned, just days after the 78-year-old survived an assassination attempt.
The party appeared energized, with its members saying the dramatic near-miss aroused enthusiasm and contributed to a stronger display of Republican unity, in stark contrast to the widening divisions among Democrats over President Joe Biden's ability to run an effective campaign and serve another four-year term.
Biden's shaky performance against his predecessor in a television debate on June 27 has unleashed calls from some Democrats for him to abandon his reelection bid.
The 81-year-old incumbent continues to face headwinds about a month before his party's national convention in Chicago, with a poll released Wednesday by The Associated Press finding that nearly two-thirds of Democrats think Biden should drop out of the race.
The Republican Party's platform, adopted at this week's convention, offers a glimpse into what Trump's foreign policy trajectory will be like if he wins the Nov. 5 election.
But aside from promising to uphold Trump's "America First" foreign policy and adopt a hawkish posture toward China, much remains unknown.
The platform, dedicated to "the forgotten men and women of America," says in the chapter on foreign affairs that the party's commitment, first and foremost, is to "return to peace through strength."
Criticizing the Biden administration's foreign policy as "weak," the party asserts that its version will center on "the most essential" U.S. interests, promising to make the military "bigger, better and stronger than ever before."
It says Republicans will reinforce alliances and counter China, but adds that to do so, U.S. allies "must meet their obligations to invest in our common defense."
Touching on the Indo-Pacific, it says they will "champion strong, sovereign and independent nations" in the region, "thriving in peace and commerce with others."
While China is named in the chapter, there are no references in the document to Japan, South Korea or Taiwan, a self-governed island that Beijing claims as part of its territory, unlike in the party's more detailed 2016 platform endorsed by its delegates ahead of Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton.
On Thursday, in his speech to formally accept the Republican presidential nomination, Trump referred to North Korea and indicated his readiness to reengage with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un if reelected.
"I get along with him. He'd like to see me back too. I think he misses me," Trump said.
In an exclusive interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, conducted in late June but published during the convention, Trump's transactional worldview was reaffirmed.
"You know, we're no different than an insurance company," he is quoted as saying, when asked about Washington's commitment to defending Taiwan from China.
Trump asserted that Taiwan has taken away the U.S. semiconductor business and become tremendously wealthy, but the democratic Asian island has not paid enough to the country for defense.
His remarks, including a suggestion that Taiwan is very far away for the United States to defend, run counter to the current bipartisan consensus in Washington, raising eyebrows among Western and Asian government officials.
Bruce Bennett, an adjunct senior defense analyst at Rand Corporation, said, "It is very hard to predict what former President Trump will do on any particular foreign relation issue if he is elected again."
Bennett sees in Trump a tendency to base important decisions on personal feelings, a factor making it all the more difficult to foresee how he would deal with an issue or foreign country at any given time.
During the convention, the Japanese and South Korean ambassadors to the United States were in the Wisconsin city to meet members in Trump's inner circle, according to sources with knowledge of their visits.
Although it seems clear that Trump would want U.S. allies to take on more responsibility and shoulder more of the expenses in maintaining global security, the likely composition of his new team could lead to even more unpredictability than in his first term.
Trump's recent pick of JD Vance, a 39-year-old freshman senator from Ohio, as his running mate provided yet another proof of the former president's preference for loyalty over experience and expertise.
Victor Cha, a senior vice president for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, has warned that a second Trump administration would likely be "far more disruptive for Asia than the first one was."
In his recent Foreign Affairs article, Cha said a second Trump term would not be expected to include many experienced policymakers, unlike those who helped take the edge off his unorthodox foreign policy when he was previously in office.
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